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“Get your thick coats now. There may be yet another AI winter,” says Rodney Brooks.

Understanding the Prediction

Rodney Brooks, a renowned figure in the field of AI, has predicted an imminent “AI winter” in 2024. As a former director at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Brooks has observed repetitive hype cycles in AI’s over 60-year history. His extensive experience in AI, dating back to the 1970s, lends weight to his forecast of a potential stagnation period in the AI industry.

The Current State of AI

2023 saw a surge in AI popularity, particularly with Large Language Models (LLM) like ChatGPT-3. Tech giants in Silicon Valley rapidly developed various LLMs, fueling the AI hype. However, Brooks points out the limitations of these systems. While impressive in some respects, he argues they fall short of achieving Artificial General Intelligence, lacking genuine substance and imagination.

The Core Critique

Brooks emphasizes that LLMs, including ChatGPT and other systems from Bing and Google’s DeepMind, are primarily adept at language processing but lack a comprehensive understanding of the world. He criticizes their tendency to respond with misplaced confidence, often leading to inaccuracies. This gap, he suggests, is indicative of their distance from being truly intelligent entities.

Looking Ahead

The concept of an AI winter isn’t new to Brooks, who has witnessed similar patterns in the past. His skepticism extends to the future iterations of LLMs, like GPT-5 and GPT-6, highlighting that these models are still far from being all-encompassing AI solutions. His perspective serves as a cautionary reminder of the limitations and challenges that still lie ahead in the quest for Artificial General Intelligence.

For a more in-depth exploration of this topic and to understand the implications for the future of AI, refer to the full article by Tom Hale, edited by Maddy Chapman, at IFLScience.